Political commentator Nick Twinamatsiko has argued that Uganda’s presidential elections since the mid-1990s have largely revolved around President Yoweri Museveni himself, rather than competing ideas about the country’s future.
In a statement shared on X, Twinamatsiko said support for opposition candidates such as Dr Kizza Besigye in 2001 and 2006, and Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) in 2021 and beyond, was driven mainly by voters’ belief that these figures had the potential to defeat Museveni.
According to him, policy platforms and manifestos played a secondary role in shaping voter choices.
Twinamatsiko noted that for many voters, the central political question has not been what direction Uganda should take after Museveni, but whether Museveni should continue in power.
He argued that voters’ answers to this question often depend on their personal circumstances, including economic wellbeing and access to opportunities.
“Every election since 1996 has effectively been a referendum on Museveni’s leadership,” Twinamatsiko said, adding that the opposition candidate who garners the most votes typically does so because they are perceived as the strongest challenger to the incumbent, not because of a clearly articulated alternative vision.
He further suggested that opposition voters tend to focus more on what they want to move away from than what they want to move toward.
This, he said, reflects an assumption—whether conscious or not—that any form of change is preferable to maintaining the status quo.
Looking ahead, Twinamatsiko cautioned that historical accounts may fail to fully capture the depth of Museveni’s dominance of Uganda’s political space.
While history books may record that Museveni ruled for more than four decades, he said they could overlook the fact that at least seven presidential elections functioned more as judgments on one leader’s rule than as contests between distinct national visions.
Museveni has been in power since 1986 and remains one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders.