Lawyer and political commentator Godwin Toko has warned that the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) could face a major internal crisis once President Yoweri Museveni exits the political scene, arguing that few within the party have mastered his unique political strategy.
In a detailed post on X, Toko said many of Museveni’s allies rely heavily on state machinery and power to maintain political dominance but lack the tactical restraint and legitimacy-building approach that has defined Museveni’s rule.
“Habibi, part of the crisis that NRM is likely to face after Museveni is that few people in there seem to have mastered the Museveni politics,” Toko wrote, citing Speaker of Parliament Anita Among as an example.
He noted that despite Among’s financial resources and strong state backing in Bukedea, her allies are working to ensure she is elected unopposed, something Museveni himself would rarely allow.
“Museveni lives for competition. Every election gives him legitimacy,” Toko explained, recalling how Museveni allowed Dr. Kizza Besigye to contest in 2006 despite legal challenges that could have barred him.
Toko argued that Museveni’s strategy has always been to maintain the appearance of democracy while securing predictable electoral outcomes.
“He wants his opponents in the race, even more than they want to be there,” he said, predicting that Museveni could win between 63 and 65 per cent in the next election to project political strength against the National Unity Platform (NUP).
Turning to sports politics, Toko also advised FUFA president Moses Magogo to learn from Museveni’s tactical patience, warning that pushing controversial reforms too aggressively risks backlash.
He concluded that while the NRM may remain in power after Museveni, its survival could be short-lived if his successors fail to blend power with political strategy and restraint.