The contest for the next parliamentary leadership is taking an unusual shape within the ruling NRM, with a small number of legislators eyeing the Speakership while a significantly larger group competes for the Deputy Speaker position.
Political analyst David Soita Masinde says the pattern reflects a shift in how political actors are weighing risk against access to power, rather than a lack of ambition for top office.
“The imbalance we are seeing is not random. It reflects how MPs are reading the current political environment and adjusting accordingly,” Masinde says.
According to the NRM internal list, only three MPs have shown interest in the Speakership: Jacob Marksons Oboth Oboth (West Budama Central), Dr Florence Akiiki Asiimwe (Masindi District Woman MP), and Alioni Yorke Odria (Aringa South).
On the other hand, more than a dozen legislators, including Thomas Tayebwa, Rose Obiga, Catherine Lamwaka, and Lydia Wanyoto Mutende, are competing for Deputy Speaker.
Masinde links the development to what he terms the “Anita Effect,” arguing that recent political developments around high-profile offices have made the Speakership a more exposed position.
“What used to be seen as the most attractive parliamentary seat is now being viewed differently. It carries far more visibility, pressure, and political risk than before,” he says.
He notes that the Speakership has increasingly become a central point between Parliament, the Executive, and public scrutiny, placing its holder under constant pressure.
“The Speaker today is not just presiding over proceedings. The office sits at the centre of competing political forces and carries the burden of managing them,” Masinde explains.
This, he adds, has influenced the surge of interest in the Deputy Speaker position, which still offers influence but with less direct exposure.
“Many of those going for Deputy Speaker are not stepping away from power. They are choosing a position that allows access to authority while avoiding being the main focus of political pressure,” he says.
Masinde describes the trend as a calculated adjustment within political ranks rather than a retreat.
“It is a shift in strategy. Politicians are still seeking influence, but they are choosing how visible they want to be in the current climate,” he adds.
He further argues that the pattern reflects a broader tendency among political actors to avoid positions that place them at the centre of controversy, especially in periods of heightened scrutiny.
The NRM’s emerging alignment, which reportedly leans toward Jacob Oboth Oboth for Speaker and Thomas Tayebwa for Deputy Speaker, is expected to shape how the final parliamentary leadership structure takes form.