A new political debate has emerged in Uganda after scholar Yusuf Sserunkuma argued that General Muhoozi Kainerugaba may already be exercising significant state power ahead of any formal transition.
In his assessment, Sserunkuma suggests that Uganda’s political direction is increasingly pointing toward a controlled transition of power, with the First Son at the centre of it.
His remarks come at a time when questions are growing over who will eventually succeed President Yoweri Museveni, who has led the country since 1986.
“What is also undeniable is that the prince and heir-apparent is already calling the shots,” Sserunkuma said.
“Considering that opposition forces have been thoroughly emasculated, this is clearly his time as his father slowly but steadily bows to the ruins of time.”
The comments reflect a broader concern among analysts about the state of Uganda’s opposition, which has struggled to mount sustained political pressure against the ruling establishment.
According to Sserunkuma, this has created an environment where a transition within the ruling elite faces minimal resistance.
“Thus, for me, I think as a country, it is about time we opened the discussion on Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba—not just the possibility of becoming president, but one who has already assumed co-presidency,” he added.
The scholar argues that the nature of a future transition may depart from traditional electoral processes.
Instead, he points to internal dynamics within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the president’s inner circle as the likely determinants of succession.
“If we are looking at a peaceful transition—not a violent one—it will not be electoral, but hereditary,” he said. “Not even internal to NRM, but Museveni’s family.”
Sserunkuma further links the succession debate to long-standing political and economic networks built over decades of Museveni’s rule.
He argues that powerful actors, including business and military interests, may favour continuity to protect existing arrangements.
“They will stop at nothing to ensure that the new president has to be a familiar face,” he said. “This person has to be capable of enabling them continuity or, in the worst-case, allow them time to move their wealth elsewhere.”
He also warned that any leader perceived as hostile to these interests could face resistance.
“They cannot accept someone whose politics is diametrically opposed to Museveni, who might decide to jail them or put an immediate stop to their activities,” he added.
At the same time, Sserunkuma acknowledged that the final decision remains with President Museveni, who continues to wield significant influence over the political direction of the country.
“Unless something magical happens—like a revolution from nowhere—no one is prepared enough to stop his accession, except of course his father,” he said.