A message from Professor Venansius Baryamureeba to newly elected Speaker of Parliament Jacob Marksons Oboth has brought to the surface internal political calculations and succession dynamics within Uganda’s ruling establishment, following the recent leadership changes in Parliament.
In his remarks, Baryamureeba congratulated Oboth on his elevation to the Speakership but cautioned that the position comes with complex political realities.
He described what he termed as an “open public secret” surrounding expectations within the National Resistance Movement (NRM), particularly claims that Deputy Speaker Thomas Tayebwa and his allies had anticipated a different succession path.
According to Baryamureeba, there had been a belief within certain political circles that Tayebwa would become the NRM’s preferred candidate for Speaker should Anita Among exit the position.
He further suggested that Oboth’s rise disrupted an informal hierarchy, arguing that the new Speaker had effectively “jumped the queue” from a lower ranking position, bypassing other potential contenders.
The professor also pointed to broader strategic interests among Members of Parliament who expressed interest in the Deputy Speaker role.
He claimed that such ambitions were not limited to the immediate term but were part of longer-term political positioning ahead of the 2031 elections.
“Those candidates who expressed interest in the position of Deputy Speaker were actually expressing interest in 2031 but at the same time to lobby for Cabinet positions, Commissioner positions and Chairperson of Committees in Parliament,” Baryamureeba stated.
He outlined a possible future scenario in which both Oboth and Tayebwa could face off for the Speakership in 2031, with each leveraging their current roles to strengthen their political capital.
In that context, Baryamureeba posed a direct question to the new Speaker regarding what would distinguish him in a potential contest.
“So, the question I have for you (Oboth): what will give you an edge over your deputy in 2031? Is it the numbers in Parliament? Is it your performance during the five years? Is it your political alignment with those who propelled you to the Speakership position?” he asked.
The comments highlight the intricate balance of power, alliances, and long-term ambitions shaping Uganda’s parliamentary leadership.
While Oboth has yet to publicly respond to the remarks, the message underscores the political pressures and expectations surrounding his tenure.
As the new parliamentary leadership settles in, attention is likely to remain on how internal dynamics within the ruling party evolve, particularly in relation to succession planning and influence within the House.