A political storm that now appears to be gathering around Uganda’s parliamentary leadership was, months earlier, foreseen by veteran journalist Andrew Mwenda, who warned that the position of Speaker would become central to President Yoweri Museveni’s long-term political strategy.
Writing in his March 21, 2026 column in The Independent, Mwenda argued that the contest over the Speaker of Parliament would shape not only legislative control but also the broader question of political transition within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM).
His analysis framed the role as a critical pillar in determining the balance of power in Uganda’s governance structure.
Mwenda noted that while an early March meeting of the NRM’s Central Executive Committee (CEC) at State House had endorsed maintaining the status quo — with Speaker Anita Annet Among and her deputy Thomas Tayebwa retaining their positions — underlying tensions were already evident.
According to him, dissenting voices within the corridors of power were quietly opposing Among’s continued tenure, a signal that internal contestation was building.
“The decision on who becomes Speaker will largely be determined by the president,” Mwenda wrote, adding that such a choice would reveal Museveni’s thinking on succession, whether he intends to remain in power beyond 2031 or prepare for transition.
In his column, Mwenda placed the current situation within a broader historical pattern. Since the adoption of the 1995 Constitution, Museveni has consistently supported Speakers who were not part of the NRM’s “historical” core.
From Jacob Oulanyah, who had roots in the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC), to Rebecca Kadaga and now Among, the trend reflects a deliberate strategy to limit the consolidation of power among long-standing party insiders.
Mwenda argued that this approach was shaped by lessons from the tenure of former Speaker James Wapakhabulo, a respected NRM figure who once commanded significant legitimacy within the party and was viewed as a potential successor.
His ability to preside over the censure of powerful ministers close to the president reportedly influenced Museveni’s subsequent caution in allowing any Speaker to build an independent political base.
However, Mwenda suggested that Among may have broken from this pattern.
He claimed that the Speaker had consolidated an unusually broad power network across multiple institutions, including Parliament, the judiciary, and influential elite circles.
According to the columnist, Among’s control over parliamentary processes and resources had enabled her to secure loyalty across both ruling party and opposition MPs, as well as independent.
Mwenda further alleged that her influence extended into judicial appointments, given Parliament’s role in approving judges, and into elite patronage networks through employment opportunities within the Parliamentary Commission.
“This construction of broad-based power is the cause of concern,” he wrote, warning that such consolidation could unsettle existing power balances.
However, subsequent political developments have significantly altered the trajectory Mwenda had described.
In a dramatic shift ahead of the final parliamentary vote, Anita Annet Among later announced that she would not contest the speakership race, effectively stepping aside from the succession contest that had been shaping political calculations within the NRM and Parliament.
Her withdrawal cleared the path for a new parliamentary leadership configuration, culminating in the election of Jacob Marksons Oboth-Oboth as Speaker of Parliament, while Thomas Tayebwa retained his position as Deputy Speaker.
The outcome signalled a recalibration of influence within the ruling establishment, with observers interpreting it as part of a broader internal realignment of power ahead of the next electoral cycle.
At the same time, Among has come under increasing scrutiny, with ongoing investigations reportedly examining allegations linked to corruption, money laundering, and abuse of office.
While no formal charges have been conclusively proven in court, the inquiries have intensified political pressure around her previously dominant parliamentary influence.
Analysts say the combination of her withdrawal, leadership reshuffling, and emerging investigations reflects a rapid shift in the political landscape Mwenda had warned about — where the speakership is no longer just a parliamentary office, but a contested centre of power within Uganda’s evolving succession politics.