Nabayiga Idah, Winner of the Kalangala by election
Political analyst David Soita Masinde has cast doubt on the outcome of the Kalangala District Woman MP by-election, arguing that the final results point to what he describes as a “systemic statistical anomaly” rather than a genuine shift in voter preference.
The Electoral Commission declared National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate Idah Nabayiga the winner with 12,642 votes, defeating National Unity Platform (NUP)-backed candidate Irene Nampala, who secured 7,474 votes.
The result represents a 63 per cent to 37 per cent split, handing the ruling party a margin of more than 5,000 votes.
In his assessment, Masinde argues that the outcome contradicts Kalangala’s recent political trajectory.
The island district has, in past elections, demonstrated strong opposition leanings, shaped in part by the legacy of former Woman MP Hellen Nakimuli and growing resistance to state policies affecting local livelihoods.
Masinde points specifically to long-standing grievances among residents, including the enforcement of fishing regulations on Lake Victoria and the expansion of palm oil plantations, which have been linked to land disputes.
He notes that these issues have historically fueled anti-government sentiment, particularly among young and migratory fishing communities.
“Based on historical voting patterns and current socio-economic dynamics, the probability of such a wide swing toward the NRM is extremely low,” Masinde argues, suggesting that the results do not align with established voter behavior in the district.
He further claims that the outcome may have been influenced by what he describes as “administrative mechanisms” within the electoral process.
According to his analysis, factors such as state resource advantage, security deployment, and centralized tallying systems may have played a decisive role in shaping the final figures.
The analyst stops short of presenting direct evidence of malpractice but insists that the scale of the margin raises legitimate questions about the integrity of the tallying and results transmission process.
The by-election, triggered by the death of Nakimuli, had attracted national attention, with both NRM and NUP viewing it as a strategic contest.
While the ruling party has celebrated the win as a sign of continued grassroots support, opposition figures have already signaled concerns about the conduct of the election.